A leading expert from France’s renowned Institut Pasteur has issued a sobering warning: if the currently circulating bird flu virus mutates to spread between humans, the resulting pandemic could be worse than COVID-19.
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A scientist at the Institut Pasteur analyzes the H5N1 avian influenza virus structure, monitoring for mutations that could potentially lead to a pandemic more severe than COVID-19.
While the
world has moved past the height of the coronavirus crisis, Marie-Anne
Rameix-Welti, medical director at the Institut Pasteur’s respiratory infections
center, believes we cannot ignore the threat of H5 avian influenza.
Why It Could Be More Dangerous Than COVID
The concern isn't just about infection
numbers, but severity. Rameix-Welti highlighted two critical reasons why
a mutated bird flu is so dangerous:
The Immunity Gap: Just like
with COVID-19 in 2020, humans have zero immunity to the H5 bird flu
strain. We have antibodies for common seasonal flus (H1 and H3), but our immune
systems are blind to this specific virus.
Lethality in Healthy People:
Unlike COVID, which hit the elderly and vulnerable hardest, flu viruses are
notorious for killing even healthy adults and children.
"A bird flu pandemic would
probably be quite severe, potentially even more severe than the pandemic we
experienced," Rameix-Welti stated from her Paris lab.
The Current Situation: Don't Panic Yet
Despite the scary potential, experts
agree that the current risk to you and me is very low.
Gregorio Torres from the World
Organisation for Animal Health offers a reassuring reality check: the virus has
not yet adapted to human-to-human transmission. "You can happily walk
in the forest, eat chicken and eggs and enjoy your life," Torres said,
noting that while the pandemic is a possibility, the probability right
now remains low.
The Silver Lining: We Are Better
Prepared
If the worst-case scenario happens and
the virus does mutate, we are starting from a much stronger position
than we did in 2020.
Rameix-Welti pointed out a massive
advantage we have over the early days of COVID:
Vaccines are ready:
Scientists already have vaccine candidates and manufacturing protocols in
place.
Antivirals exist: We
already have stocks of medication that, in principle, work against avian
influenza.
Why It Could Be More Dangerous Than COVID
The concern isn't just about infection
numbers, but severity. Rameix-Welti highlighted two critical reasons why
a mutated bird flu is so dangerous:
The Immunity Gap: Just like
with COVID-19 in 2020, humans have zero immunity to the H5 bird flu
strain. We have antibodies for common seasonal flus (H1 and H3), but our immune
systems are blind to this specific virus.
Lethality in Healthy People:
Unlike COVID, which hit the elderly and vulnerable hardest, flu viruses are
notorious for killing even healthy adults and children.
"A bird flu pandemic would
probably be quite severe, potentially even more severe than the pandemic we
experienced," Rameix-Welti stated from her Paris lab.
The Current Situation: Don't Panic Yet
Despite the scary potential, experts
agree that the current risk to you and me is very low.
Gregorio Torres from the World
Organisation for Animal Health offers a reassuring reality check: the virus has
not yet adapted to human-to-human transmission. "You can happily walk
in the forest, eat chicken and eggs and enjoy your life," Torres said,
noting that while the pandemic is a possibility, the probability right
now remains low.
The Silver Lining: We Are Better
Prepared
If the worst-case scenario happens and
the virus does mutate, we are starting from a much stronger position
than we did in 2020.
Rameix-Welti pointed out a massive advantage we have over the early days of COVID:
Vaccines are ready: Scientists already have vaccine candidates and manufacturing protocols in place.Antivirals exist: We already have stocks of medication that, in principle, work against avian influenza.
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